The Stability of Azerbaijan Under President Ilham Aliyev
Economic Situation
Azerbaijan, considered a stable country, still faces risks due to its economy being heavily dependent on fossil fuels. The government has been working towards diversifying the economy by developing green energy and other sectors.
- Fossil Fuel Dependence: Azerbaijan’s economy is at risk due to its reliance on fossil fuels.
- Diversification Efforts: The government aims to develop green energy and other sectors to reduce dependence on oil.
Foreign Policy
Azerbaijan’s foreign policy has been successful, with recent military victories in Nagorno-Karabakh. This has strengthened the country’s position both regionally and internationally.
- Military Successes: Azerbaijan’s military successes have enhanced its regional and international standing.
- Foreign Policy Effectiveness: The country’s active foreign policy has contributed to its stability.
Domestic Politics
The government maintains a strong grip on power, with no apparent threats to Aliyev’s rule at present. However, there are potential risks including spontaneous popular revolts and friction within the elite, which could be triggered by crises such as falls in oil prices or other economic downturns.
- Government Control: The current government maintains a firm grip on power.
- Potential Risks: Spontaneous popular revolts and elite friction may pose risks to the stability of Azerbaijan.
Succession
Ilham Aliyev may rule for many more years due to the lack of term limits for the presidency. There is a possibility that he might choose his son Heydar Jr. as his successor, although this has not been officially confirmed.
- Potential Long-Term Rule: Ilham Aliyev’s extended tenure could continue due to the absence of term limits.
- Succession Uncertainty: The potential for Ilham Aliyev’s son Heydar Jr. to succeed him remains uncertain.
Stability
The current mechanism of stabilising the domestic situation through successes in foreign and security policy may prove insufficient to maintain the country’s sustainable development or preserve the system’s stability in the long term due to growing social disparities.
- Growing Disparities: Social inequalities may undermine the sustainability of Azerbaijan’s development.
- Long-Term Stability Risks: The current stabilisation mechanism may not address these risks effectively.