Assessing Creditworthiness of Brazil’s Banking Sector
Credit Risk Assessment
Brazil’s banking sector faces moderate credit risk, with a rating of 4. This indicates that the economy’s overall credit quality is stable, but vulnerable to potential shocks.
Industry Risk
- Stable Rating: Industry risk for the banking sector is considered stable, with a rating of 5.
- Reasons for Stability: The stability in industry risk is due to the sector’s well-established business models and low levels of industry concentration.
Institutional Framework Assessment
The institutional framework supporting Brazil’s banking sector is moderately weak, with a rating of 3. This weakness is attributed to:
Need for Improved Resolution Mechanisms
- Draft Resolution Regime Bill: Brazil has a draft resolution regime bill that creates two mechanisms to resolve financial institutions: the Stabilization Regime and the Compulsory Liquidation Regime.
- Government Support: The government would provide support in the event of a crisis, including extraordinary measures.
Competitive Dynamics
Competitive dynamics in Brazil’s banking sector are relatively stable, with a rating of 4. This stability is due to:
Systemic Importance
- Five Systemically Important Banks: Itau Unibanco Holding S.A., Banco do Brasil S.A., Banco Bradesco S.A., Caixa Economica Federal, and Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Economico e Social (BNDES) are considered systemically important.
Government Support Assessment
The government’s support for Brazil’s banking sector is considered supportive, but not highly so, with a rating of Supportive. In the event of a crisis:
Government Lending
- Possible Conditions: The government may lend to resolution funds, but this would require certain conditions to be met.
Systemwide Funding
Systemwide funding in Brazil’s banking sector is considered moderate, with a rating of 3.
Overall Rating Outlook
The overall rating outlook for Brazil’s banking sector is stable.
References
- S&P Global Ratings criteria and research provide further insights into the creditworthiness of Brazil’s banking sector.