Financial Crime World

Here is the article in markdown format:

Economic Outlook for 2024: Key Highlights from the National Bank of Cambodia (NBC)

=====================================================

The National Bank of Cambodia has released its economic outlook report for 2024, highlighting key areas that are expected to drive growth and shape the country’s economic landscape. Here are the main points from the report.

Economic Growth Projections

  • Tourism sector: Expected to recover driven by improved regional tourism and infrastructure development.
  • Manufacturing sector: Non-garment products are expected to grow faster than in 2023 due to the new investment law, while the garment sector will see incremental growth.
  • Agricultural sector: Will grow slightly higher than in 2023, benefiting from diversified exporting markets within the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and other bilateral free trade agreements.

Inflation Outlook

  • Inflation rate: Projected at 2.5% in 2024, a moderate increase from 2023.
  • Main driver of inflation: Expectations of a rise in global crude oil prices following planned supply cuts by oil-exporting countries.

Monetary Policy

  • Continued prudent monetary policy: Will help stabilize the exchange rate and protect the purchasing power of the riel.
  • Introduction of policy rate: To guide market interest rates to a reasonable level.
  • Enhancement of monetary policy framework: Including the development of monetary instruments and markets.

Financial Stability

  • Prioritizing financial stability: Essential in the face of ongoing global economic uncertainty and slow growth.
  • Regular monitoring and assessment: Of potential risks is crucial components of this strategy.
  • Strengthening financial stability: And promoting the use of the riel will require contributions from stakeholders in various sectors and the public.

Risks to Economic Growth

External Risks

  • Slower-than-expected growth in major trading partners
  • Slower monetary policy normalization
  • Escalating tensions and geopolitical fragmentation
  • Adverse effects of climate change
  • Growing threats of cybercrime

Internal Risks

  • Rising non-performing loans
  • Weak growth in the construction and real estate sectors due to low demand

Persistent Structural Issues

  • Slow progress in economic and export diversification
  • Limited capacity, skills, and productivity
  • High transportation and electricity costs compared to other countries competing in similar export sectors
  • Vulnerability of the agriculture sector to climate change
  • High dollarization