The Future of International Cooperation Against Transnational Organized Crime

Introduction

The fight against transnational organized crime is a complex challenge that requires international cooperation. However, the future of this cooperation is uncertain and may be shaped by various scenarios. This article discusses three possible paths that may shape the future of international cooperation against transnational organized crime.

Scenarios for International Cooperation

Weak Cooperation

In a scenario where states prioritize their national interests over international cooperation, we can expect to see a decline in multilateral agreements and an increase in unilateral action. This could lead to a lack of coordination and cooperation among countries, making it more difficult to address transnational organized crime effectively.

• National interests may take precedence over global concerns
• Multilateral agreements may be harder to reach and implement
• Unilateral action may become the norm

Informal Agreements

Another possible scenario is that states opt for informal, non-binding agreements due to the difficulty of reaching long-term, multilateral agreements under current circumstances. This could lead to a proliferation of bilateral or regional agreements.

• Informal agreements may be easier to reach and implement
• Bilateral or regional agreements may become more common
• Lack of external scrutiny and evaluation

Coalitions for Cooperation

The report notes that some states are establishing new coalitions or pathways for cooperation, such as the Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) pact on advanced technologies. These coalitions may signal a growing reliance on issue-specific alliances with like-minded countries.

• Coalitions may be more effective in addressing specific crime control challenges
• Issue-specific alliances may become more common
• Growing reliance on bilateral or regional cooperation

Unilateralism and Its Consequences

The report also highlights the potential consequences of unilateralism, where powerful states may opt for unilateral action to fight certain kinds of organized crime, often using methods that are illegal and problematic for the world order, human rights, and the rule of law. This could lead to a decline in multilateral obligations and a lack of external scrutiny and meaningful evaluation of their implementation.

• Unilateral action may be used to address specific crime control challenges
• Methods may be illegal or problematic for the world order, human rights, and the rule of law
• Decline in multilateral obligations and external scrutiny

Conclusion

The future of international cooperation against transnational organized crime will be shaped by a combination of these scenarios. States will need to balance their national interests with the need for effective cooperation to address shared crime control challenges. By understanding these possible paths, we can better prepare for the challenges that lie ahead and work towards a more effective and coordinated response to transnational organized crime.