Financial Crime World

The Future of International Cooperation against Transnational Organized Crime

As power shifts among states, the nature of international cooperation against transnational organized crime is likely to undergo significant changes. Here are some potential future scenarios:

Informal Agreements

  • Less attractive multilateral agreements: Rising powers may opt for informal, easily renegotiable bilateral agreements over long-term multilateral ones.
  • Flexibility and adaptability: Informal agreements can be more flexible and adaptable to changing circumstances.

New Pathways for Cooperation

In response to shared crime control interests and geopolitical shifts, new coalitions or pathways for cooperation are emerging:

Cooperation Bubbles

  • Examples: AUKUS pact on advanced technologies
  • Shared interests: States may form coalitions based on shared interests in combating organized crime.

Unilateral Action by Powerful States

Some powerful states may choose unilateral action to combat certain types of organized crime, potentially using methods that are:

Problematic for the World Order

  • Human rights and rule of law concerns: Unilateral measures may have unintended consequences for human rights and the rule of law.
  • Global security implications: Unilateral actions can lead to a more fragmented and complex international landscape.

Extraterritorial Jurisdictions

Some countries have created extraterritorial jurisdictions to enable their law enforcement agencies to operate abroad:

Circumventing International Agreements

  • UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime (UNTOC): Countries may use extraterritorial jurisdictions to circumvent international agreements.
  • Global implications: The emergence of new extraterritorial jurisdictions can have far-reaching consequences for global systems.

Unintended Consequences

Unilateral measures, such as data localization laws and government-sponsored hacking, may have unintended consequences:

Global Systems Implications

  • Data localization laws: Such laws can disrupt the functioning of global systems.
  • Government-sponsored hacking: This can lead to a loss of trust in digital infrastructure.

Conclusion

The future of international cooperation against transnational organized crime is likely to be characterized by:

  • A shift towards informal agreements and cooperation bubbles
  • Increased unilateralism by powerful states
  • The emergence of new extraterritorial jurisdictions
  • Unintended consequences of unilateral measures

These trends may lead to a more fragmented and complex international landscape, with potential implications for global security, human rights, and the rule of law.