Guinea in Crisis: Economic Sanctions and Compliance in the Face of Military Coup

In a shocking turn of events, a military coup on September 5, 2021, ousted President Alpha Condé from power in Guinea. The international community has condemned the coup, with major players like the United States, Europe, and regional bodies questioning its legitimacy.

International Reaction

• ECOWAS: Suspended Guinea’s membership and decision-making power within the bloc, citing concerns over the AU Charter on Elections, Democracy, and Governance.
• African Union (AU): Emphasized the importance of democratic transitions and peaceful transfers of power.

Economic Sanctions: A Necessary Measure?

While ECOWAS and the AU have refrained from imposing sanctions thus far, there is a strong case for such an outcome, given the questionable human rights record of coups in Guinea’s history. The 2008 coup saw opposition leaders arrested and detained at the Alpha Yaya Diallo military camp.

Targeted Approach: A More Effective Strategy

In light of this history, economic sanctions from ECOWAS and the AU are unlikely to inflict significant harm on Guinea’s economy. However, a more targeted approach could be effective in reducing financial and military support available to the current military junta until a clear timetable for transition is established.

Recommendations

• Define Clear Criteria: Establish clear criteria for determining outcomes that justify sanctions.
• Prioritize Humanitarian Interests: Prioritize humanitarian interests over economic protection.
• Establish Roadmap: Create a roadmap towards democratic transition, balancing local and global interests.
• Ensure Reforms: Ensure that reforms to the mining code promote rigor and evidence-based policymaking.

By taking these steps, the international community can work together to support Guinea’s transition towards democracy and stability.