Financial Crime World

Ecuador’s Security Crisis: A Delicate Balance

Ecuador is currently facing a severe security crisis due to gang violence and criminal activity. President Daniel Noboa has made addressing this situation his overriding priority, introducing a comprehensive plan known as “Plan Fenix” to tackle the issue.

Key Points from the Article

  • Security Situation: Ecuador is experiencing high levels of gang violence and criminal activity, which is affecting its overall security.
  • Government Response: President Noboa’s “Plan Fenix” involves deploying the military, increasing prison sentences, and strengthening border security to combat gangs and crime.
  • Public Support: A national referendum held on April 21 showed majority support for some of the government’s controversial proposals related to security.
  • Human Rights Concerns: The militarization of the conflict raises concerns about human rights abuses and erosion of civil liberties.
  • Economic Outlook: Ecuador’s economic situation is precarious, with a high fiscal deficit in its 2024 national budget.
  • Regional Implications: The crisis in Ecuador is exacerbating migration to other countries, which weakens their economic potential.

Possible Scenarios

The article presents three possible scenarios for the future of Ecuador:

  1. A New Normal: The government’s militarized response will be somewhat effective, ushering in a “new normal” where Ecuadorians choose restricted civil liberties over extreme violence.
  2. Worsening Security Crisis Hurts the Economy: Militarization of the conflict causes violence to spike, leading to a weaker state and an increase in violence.
  3. A Return to the 2010s: The government successfully captures and imprisons criminal leaders, manages its prisons, and brings the country back to the high-growth and low-violence era of the early 2010s.

The least likely scenario is that the government will be successful in capturing and imprisoning criminal leaders, managing its prisons, snuffing out violence, and bringing the country back to the high-growth and low-violence era of the early 2010s.