Fraudulent Democracy? An Analysis of Argentina’s Infamous Decade

Introduction

A recent study has shed new light on the infamous elections of Argentina’s 1940s, which were marred by allegations of electoral fraud. The analysis, conducted by a team of researchers from the University of California San Diego, examined the distribution of votes for the Radical (UCR) and Conservative parties in the province of Buenos Aires between 1931 and 1941.

Methodology

The study analyzed the distribution of digits in the vote counts at the partido level to evaluate the validity of claims about electoral fraud. The researchers also used synthetic data to test the benefits of digital analysis as a useful fraud-detection tool. By generating large amounts of simulated data with known levels of “contamination,” they were able to verify the sensitivity and specificity of their supervised learning model.

Benford’s Law

According to Benford’s Law, which states that in a collection of numbers, the probability of the first or leading digit being d should be P(leading digit = d) = log10(d+1/d), the distribution of digits in the vote counts can provide valuable insights into the legitimacy of an election. The researchers used a Monte Carlo method to simulate electoral contests and generate synthetic data with known levels of manipulation.

Findings

The study found that Benford’s Law is not only applicable to datasets but also invariant under certain transformations, making it a useful tool for detecting electoral fraud. While the data does not conclusively prove the occurrence of electoral fraud, it highlights the importance of using statistical analysis and digital tools to verify the legitimacy of election outcomes.

Implications

The study’s findings have significant implications for understanding the nature of democratic elections in Argentina during this period. The results suggest that allegations of electoral fraud may be more prevalent than previously thought, and that digital analysis can play a crucial role in detecting and preventing fraudulent activities.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the study provides new insights into the infamous elections of Argentina’s 1940s, shedding light on the alleged cases of electoral fraud. The findings highlight the importance of using statistical analysis and digital tools to verify the legitimacy of election outcomes, and provide a framework for future research on this topic.

References

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Date: October 25, 2011 Source: University of California San Diego