Financial Crime World

Economic Trends and Outlook: A Global Perspective

European Countries

European economies have shown a mixed performance in recent years. While some countries have recovered faster than expected, others have experienced a slowdown in economic activities.

  • Recovery and Slowdown: Most European economies recovered quickly in 2021 due to the normalization of economic activities as vaccine rollout proceeded and governments provided additional fiscal support.
  • Slowing Growth Rates:
    • Spain: from 2.2% to 0.2%
    • Italy: from 2.7% to 0.2%
    • Portugal: from 1.7% to 0.3%

Eurozone

The Euro Area’s economic growth was 3.5% in 2022, with a projected growth of 0.8% for 2023.

  • Inflation: Annual average inflation is projected to peak at historical highs in 2022 (8.4% in the Euro Area and 9.3% in the EU) before easing in 2023.

United Kingdom

The UK economy has been negatively impacted by the Russia-Ukraine war, with an annual rate of inflation reaching a 41-year high of 11.1% in October 2022.

  • Economic Growth: Economic growth was 4.0% slower in 2022 compared to 2021, and is projected to have a growth rate of 1.6% for 2023.

United States

The economic outlook for the United States has deteriorated due to soaring energy and commodity prices, tighter labor market conditions, and aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.

  • GDP Growth: GDP growth was 5.4% in 2021 but decreased to 2.1% in 2022 with a projected growth of 1.6% for 2023.

Japan

Japan’s economy has returned to pre-pandemic levels, but may slow down again due to inflation weighing on household consumption and economic activity.

  • GDP Growth: GDP growth was steady at 1.1% for 2022, with a projected growth rate of 1.3% for 2023.

Emerging Economies (BRIICS)

Growth in BRIICS countries has been weaker than expected, reaching only 0.3% in Q4/2022 from 2.4% achieved in Q4/2021.

  • Country Performance:
    • China: slowed to about 3.0% in 2022 from 8.4% achieved in 2021 due to multiple lockdowns and concerns about the property sector.
    • India: witnessed a growth rate of 6.8% in 2022, lower than the 9.1% achieved in 2021.

Overall Outlook

The economic outlook is uncertain and influenced by various factors such as inflation, monetary policy, and global events like the Russia-Ukraine war.