Financial Crime World

Title: Libya’s Economy and Financial Sector: IMF Report Shows Robust Growth Amidst Challenges

Tripoli - Key Findings from the IMF Mission (October 17-28, 2010)

  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) commends Libyan authorities for cooperation and hospitality during the recent mission.
  • Libya’s economy continues to grow, despite challenges, and is expected to remain stable over the medium term.

I. Current Situation and Recent Developments

  • Libyan Economy: The Libyan economy shows continued strength with large fiscal and external positions. However, challenges include creating viable employment opportunities and diversifying the economy.
  • Global Financial Crisis Impact: Libya’s exposure to the global financial crisis was minimal due to its insulation from the financial system, limited trade ties outside the oil sector, and substantial foreign reserves.
  • Non-oil sector: Despite a decline in the energy sector, the non-oil sector recorded solid growth in 2009 and is expected to strengthen in 2010.

II. Medium-Term Outlook and Risks

  • Projected growth: Libya’s economic growth and strong financial position are projected to continue over the medium term.
  • Downside risks: The continuation of these trends is subject to downside risks, such as a worsening global economic climate that could depress oil prices or hinder reform implementation.

III. Policy Discussions

A. Fiscal Policy

  • 2010 budget: A significant increase in public expenditure in the 2010 budget.
  • Support: IMF supports the budget’s focus on infrastructure investment and transparency in recording subsidies.
  • Recommendations: Link wage increases to performance, prioritize high-quality investments, maintain fiscal flexibility, phase out subsidies, and mitigate impact on low-income groups.

B. Monetary Policy and Financial Sector Reforms

  • Monetary policy framework: Progress, but more is needed (introducing an auction mechanism for CDs, enhancing the settlement system, developing a liquidity forecasting system, and strengthening fiscal-monetary policy coordination).
  • Banking sector: Capitalization is sufficient but financial intermediation is weak, and loan documentation is insufficient.
  • Recommendations: Improve regulatory framework for state budgets, reduce allocations to extra-budgetary funds, establish a treasury single account, streamline budget procedures, and scale back SCIs’ operations.