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Jordan’s Future at Risk: US Must Act Now
As Jordan teeters on the brink of instability, the United States must take immediate action to prevent a catastrophic crisis from unfolding. The country’s economic woes, fueled by the absence of cheap gas from Egypt and the threat of Islamist radicalization, have created a perfect storm that could ignite if circumstances worsen.
Promoting a Natural Gas Deal with Israel
In this context, promoting a natural gas deal with Israel is crucial. A concessionary arrangement would not only provide Jordan with desperately needed energy but also strengthen the Israeli-Jordanian peace treaty. However, anti-Israel sentiment in Jordan runs deep, and any attempt to negotiate such a deal must be carefully managed to avoid inflaming local passions.
Modest Reform, Not Revolution
While political reform is essential for Jordan’s stability, the US should not endorse transformative changes advocated by Islamists. Instead, Washington should support modest democratic reforms, such as:
- Revising media laws
- Modifying the electoral law to increase representation in parliament
These incremental changes will provide a boost to the monarchy’s image without raising unrealistic expectations.
Engaging with Israel and Saudi Arabia
The United States can play a key role in bolstering Jordan by promoting ties with Israel and Saudi Arabia, two Middle Eastern states with deep interests in Jordan’s stability. Washington should encourage cooperation between Amman, Jerusalem, and Riyadh on:
- Political matters
- Security matters
- Intelligence matters
Mitigating Options
In the event of a rapidly deteriorating situation, the US must take immediate action to ensure the safety of its personnel and American expatriates in Jordan. This includes:
- Public messaging of support for the monarchy
- Securing immediate infusions of cash from Gulf states or Western donors
- Preventing Egypt and Qatar from intruding in Jordan’s domestic affairs
Recommendations
To prevent major threats to Jordan’s stability, the Obama administration should take the following steps:
- Work with Congress to maintain military assistance to Jordan and organize “friends of Jordan” to provide additional financial support
- Lobby King Abdullah to implement more systemic anticorruption efforts and boost open, transparent investments in East Banker-dominated areas
- Encourage Amman to prioritize its military expenditures on essential areas for regime maintenance
By taking these proactive measures, the US can help prevent a crisis in Jordan from spiraling out of control. The stakes are high, but with decisive action, we can ensure a brighter future for this strategic ally in the Middle East.
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