Kazakhstan’s Democracy Remains Illusory

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Despite its outward appearance of a functioning democracy, Kazakhstan’s political landscape remains dominated by authoritarianism and lack of accountability. The ruling elite has successfully maintained its grip on power, stifling dissent and opposition.

Post-Bloody January 2022: A Shift in Power Dynamics?

In the wake of Bloody January 2022, which saw the ousting of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev from his life chairmanship of the Security Council, no political group or vested interest has been able to exert significant influence over the domestic political process. However, the Majilis (lower chamber of parliament) lacks independence and is unable to effectively oversee the executive branch.

The Senate: A Tool for Maintaining Power

The upper chamber of parliament, the Senate, is widely viewed as undemocratic due to its composition, with 40 members chosen by local councilors rather than through direct elections. This has allowed the government to maintain a stranglehold on power.

Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs): Limited Freedom and Control

Kazakhstan’s NGO sector is heavily dependent on international or state funding, with strict controls in place for recipients of foreign grants. The May 2020 law on peaceful assemblies allows authorities to prohibit gatherings on 13 legal grounds and requires notification for protests, making it difficult for citizens to exercise their right to assemble.

Media Freedom: Severely Limited

Media freedom in Kazakhstan remains severely limited, with the government exerting significant control over the press. Journalists are often harassed and intimidated by authorities, with many facing physical threats and property damage. The arrest of investigative journalist Mikhail Kozachkov in December 2022 drew widespread criticism from his colleagues and civil society.

Separation of Powers: A Formally Established but Weak Institution

The country’s separation of powers is formally established but weak in practice, with the executive branch holding significant power and influence over the legislature and judiciary. Despite constitutional reforms aimed at strengthening parliament and reducing presidential powers, few changes have been implemented in reality.

The Recent Referendum: Cosmetic Changes or Genuine Reform?

A recent nationwide referendum, organized by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, aimed to usher in a post-Nazarbayev era. However, many observers view the changes as largely cosmetic, with the ruling elite retaining its grip on power.

The Future of Kazakhstan’s Democracy

As Kazakhstan continues down this path, it remains unclear whether genuine political reform is possible or if the country will remain mired in authoritarianism. One thing is certain: the voices of dissent and opposition must be heard if meaningful change is to occur.