Financial Crime World

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Madagascar’s Economic Woes Deepen as Government Runs Out of Cash

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Antananarivo, Madagascar - The Republic of Madagascar is facing a deepening economic crisis, with the government struggling to pay its bills and cut spending on essential infrastructure. The situation has resulted in a knock-on effect for suppliers and public sector workers, who are feeling the pinch.

Economic Crisis

The country’s banking system is under pressure, with a high risk of a significant deterioration in banks’ loan portfolios and a reduction in fee income from transaction services. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the situation could lead to a substantial decline in economic growth and financial stability.

Vulnerabilities

  • Concentration of the economy makes it vulnerable to shocks
    • Banking sector and corporate sector are both highly concentrated
    • Individual banks’ loan portfolios often lack diversification
  • Risk from natural disasters, which could damage infrastructure and destroy fixed assets and equipment
  • Foreign ownership of banks is a potential source of vulnerability

Challenges for Banks

  • May struggle to maintain funding costs and liquidity if policy rates rise sharply or if there are doubts about the soundness of individual banks
  • Could lead to a “run” on deposits and reduce liquidity in the financial system

Macroeconomic Concerns

  • Systemic macroprudential issues could become important if economic growth and financial activity accelerate
  • Burst of optimism about economic prospects could lead to excessively rapid growth in credit and real estate activity, leading to higher non-performing loans

Weak Risk Mitants

  • Uneven prudential supervision
  • Governance problems in the judicial system making it difficult to enforce contracts and loan repayments

Timeline of Events

2008-2016

  • 2008: Madagascar’s economy begins to experience difficulties due to government debt and infrastructure spending cuts.
  • 2010: The country’s banking system starts to show signs of strain, with a decline in economic growth and financial activity.
  • 2012: Natural disasters strike the country, causing damage to infrastructure and fixed assets.
  • 2014: The government runs out of cash and is forced to cut spending on essential services.
  • 2016: The IMF warns that Madagascar’s economic woes could lead to a substantial decline in economic growth and financial stability.

Figures

Figure 1: Real GDP Growth and Political Events

Figure 2: Structure of Banks’ Balance Sheets