CEASEFIRE IN WESTERN SAHARA: A PATH FORWARD?
A fragile ceasefire has been agreed upon in Western Sahara, brokered by the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO). This development marks a significant step towards resolving the long-standing dispute between Morocco and the Polisario Front. However, decades of stalemate have left the status quo intact, and more work is needed to address the underlying issues.
Flawed Trade Agreements
Morocco has consolidated its presence in Western Sahara through trade agreements involving resources from the territory. These agreements have been attacked by the Polisario Front, citing violations of UN resolutions and international law. The dispute has led to legal challenges for businesses operating in the region, with several companies facing reputational, supply-chain, and legal problems.
EU-Morocco Deals in Question
The European Union holds several trade agreements with Morocco, but these deals have been challenged by the Polisario Front and various NGOs. The EU Court of Justice has issued judgments on two cases regarding the EU-Morocco Agriculture Agreement and Fisheries Agreement, finding that they cannot include Western Sahara’s resources without obtaining the consent of the people of the territory.
Business Risks
The long-standing political and diplomatic crisis in Western Sahara poses significant risks for businesses operating in the region. These risks include:
- Supply-chain disruptions
- Compliance issues
- Security concerns
- Increased hostilities and uncertainties about doing business in the territory
- Risk of sanctions being imposed on Morocco for violating human rights in the territory
Reliable Information for Complex Decisions
To navigate the complex threats posed by the conflict in Western Sahara, companies need sound information and reliable intelligence. Monitoring the situation through:
- Media reports
- Corporate communications
- Enhanced due diligence (EDD)
can help businesses design business continuity plans and emergency protocols. Adverse media screening services and due diligence reports can provide a robust defense against regulatory violations and reputational issues.
The Path Forward
The ceasefire agreement marks a significant step towards resolving the conflict in Western Sahara. However, more work is needed to address the underlying issues and ensure a lasting peace. Companies operating in the region must remain vigilant and monitor developments closely to mitigate risks and protect their interests.
By Davide Contini, researcher for Dow Jones Risk & Compliance