Financial Institution Risk Assessment in Papua New Guinea
Papua New Guinea (PNG) presents a unique set of challenges for financial institutions, with political and economic uncertainties affecting corporate payment behavior and a difficult business environment.
Challenges Facing Financial Institutions
- The country’s corporate default probability is appreciable, according to Coface.
- PNG has a business climate rating of C, indicating many troublesome weaknesses in its institutional framework.
- Debt collection is unpredictable, and corporate financial information is often unavailable or unreliable.
- Intercompany transactions run major risks in this difficult environment.
Strengths of Papua New Guinea
- Abundant natural resources
- Plans to develop new gas fields and build liquefied natural gas production units
- New mines
- Home to 15% of the world’s tropical rainforests
- Receives financial support from multilateral and bilateral partners
Weaknesses of Papua New Guinea
- Exposure to natural and climatic disasters
- Weak infrastructure network
- Weak budgetary resources
- Dependence on commodity exports
- Governance shortcomings, such as corruption and red tape
Current Economic Trends in Papua New Guinea
- Mining recovery is expected to drive growth in 2022.
- Activity at the Porgera gold mine is expected to resume.
- Natural gas extraction and liquefaction capacity is set to expand.
- However, the fragile fiscal situation is likely to persist, with public debt continuing to grow.
Challenges Facing the Government
- Managing the COVID-19 crisis
- Resolving the question of independence for Bougainville
- The country’s foreign exchange reserves are comfortable, but the trade and current account surpluses may face a marginal deterioration in 2022 due to less favorable commodity prices.
Recommendations for Financial Institutions Operating in Papua New Guinea
- Carefully assess risks and develop strategies to mitigate them.
- Thoroughly understand the local business environment, political climate, and economic trends.
- Develop strategies to manage exposure to natural and climatic disasters, weak infrastructure network, and dependence on commodity exports.
- Consider the impact of governance shortcomings on financial institutions operating in PNG.