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Russian Macro Update: Key Economic Forecasts and International Reserves

Economic Forecasts

The Bank of Russia’s latest update provides a comprehensive overview of economic forecasts for the Russian economy. Here are the key points to note:

• Moderate decline in potential GDP trajectory: The economy is expected to experience a moderate decline in its growth rate.
• Recovery in household consumer activity: Consumer demand is recovering, similar to post-crisis episodes.
• Gradual recovery of investment activity: Investment activity is gradually recovering.
• Fiscal consolidation: Fiscal policy will consolidate, returning to the fiscal rule by 2022.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

The Bank of Russia’s update also highlights key points related to inflation and monetary policy:

• Disinflationary scenario: Inflation is expected to decline sustainably from the target level.
• Longer accommodative monetary policy: The central bank may maintain a longer period of accommodative monetary policy than initially expected.
• Risk scenarios: There are potential risks, including an escalation of geopolitical tensions and credit crises in countries with high debt levels.

International Reserves

As of September 2020, the Bank of Russia’s international reserves stood at $578.7 billion. Here is a breakdown of the distribution of foreign exchange and gold assets:

• Foreign exchange and gold assets: As of September 2020, the Bank of Russia’s foreign exchange and gold reserves stood at $578.7 billion.
• Asset allocation:
  • Currency: [insert table with currency distribution]
  • Credit rating: [insert table with credit rating distribution]