Paralyzed for Over Two Years: Guinea-Bissau Teeters on the Brink of State Collapse

Guinea-Bissau, one of West Africa’s poorest countries, has been paralyzed by political instability for over two years. The country’s economic bloc, ECOWAS, imposed sanctions on the government in 2018 due to its failure to support peacebuilding efforts. As a result, the scheduled parliamentary elections this year are likely to be delayed, allowing the ruling party to maintain its grip on power.

Economic Crisis

The crisis has led donors to withdraw their pledges, leaving the country with a dwindling economy. The majority of Guinea-Bissau’s population relies on cashew crops, but the uncertainty surrounding the elections has plunged the nation into chaos.

Drug Trafficking Concerns

In this climate of instability, concerns about drug trafficking have resurfaced. Although it is difficult to estimate the exact amount of cocaine entering the country, officials admit that Guinea-Bissau remains a major hub for the illegal trade.

• The judicial police headquarters in Bissau claims to have reduced the flow of cocaine to less than a tonne annually.
• Critics argue that this figure is inaccurate and that the real amount of cocaine entering the country could be as high as 30 tonnes per year.

Combatting Trafficking

The police chief, Juscelino De Gaulle Cunha Pereira, says that most of the cocaine coming into Guinea-Bissau is brought by mules traveling from Brazil. However, outside the police headquarters, striking staff are demanding better pay and conditions, raising concerns about corruption and bribery.

International Involvement

The UN Office on Drugs and Crime scaled down its presence in the country in 2017 due to a lack of funds. A high-ranking UN official in Bissau estimates that 30 tonnes of cocaine are still entering the country annually, with big cargos coming by plane and some being transported by international fishing boats.

• The official warns that traffickers love the instability, and Guinea-Bissau’s lack of control over its borders and functioning institutions makes it an attractive hub for illegal activities.
• The situation is further complicated by shifting alliances and new players linked to groups like Islamic State and al-Qaeda working with Latin American cartels.

The Future of Guinea-Bissau

As Guinea-Bissau teeters on the brink of state collapse, the country’s future hangs in the balance. The next year will be crucial in determining whether the country will move towards stability or continue down a path of instability and drug trafficking.