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Kabul on Brink of Collapse: Hawala Industry at Risk Amid Taliban Takeover
As the situation in Kabul teeters on the edge of collapse, the international community is bracing for the potential consequences of a Taliban-controlled government on the country’s financial infrastructure. The hawala industry, which has undergone significant reforms over the past three years under the previous Afghan government, is now at risk of being exploited by terrorist organizations and criminal networks.
Concerns about Taliban Leadership
The Taliban’s appointment of Haji Mohammad Idris, a relatively unknown figure with no economic or financial expertise, as central bank governor has raised concerns about the organization’s ability to manage Afghanistan’s financial infrastructure. The country’s commercial banks are largely state-owned, leaving them vulnerable to Taliban control and potential sanctions exposure for U.S. persons and other counterparties.
Impact on Financial Infrastructure
The Da Afghanistan Bank (DAB), which is responsible for anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) supervision, is now under Taliban control. The Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU), FinTRACA, which was previously responsible for investigating Taliban finances and coordinating responses through law enforcement and other channels, may also see significant changes.
International Community Must Adapt
The international community must adapt quickly to the new reality in Afghanistan. Policymakers are urging a swift change in approach to engaging with the Afghan government and its AML/CFT authorities, emphasizing the need to improve monitoring and cooperation to mitigate the risks posed by terrorism financing.
Recommendations
- Hold the Taliban responsible for fulfilling previous commitments to supervise the banking and hawala sectors.
- Appoint independent technocrats to lead DAB and FIU.
- Limit access to sensitive financial intelligence information.
- The U.S. Treasury Department should consider using its new information-sharing authorities to support humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan.
Conclusion
As the situation continues to unfold, one thing is clear: the world must act swiftly to prevent the Taliban’s takeover from exacerbating the already dire economic situation in Afghanistan and to protect the country’s financial infrastructure from exploitation by terrorist organizations.