Niger’s Transition: Avoiding the Dangers of Stagnation

After Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) lifted economic and financial sanctions on Niger, it is imperative that the military authorities set a clear course for a return to civilian rule.

The Unintended Consequences of Sanctions

The six-month sanctions did not achieve their intended outcome. Former President Mohamed Bazoum remains in detention, and the interim government has yet to adopt a transition roadmap. The sanctions brought the Nigerien economy to a standstill, severely impacting the vulnerable population. In Niamey’s markets, retail food prices rose by an average of 75% during the six months of sanctions.

ECOWAS’ Decision

ECOWAS lifted the sanctions barely a month after Niger announced its withdrawal from the regional organization, along with Mali and Burkina Faso. The decision was seen as an attempt to keep the three nations within ECOWAS’ fold, especially after they formed the Alliance of Sahel States in September 2023.

A Window of Opportunity

Niger’s junta can now evade ECOWAS’ requirements for a short transition and potentially stay in power for three years. However, the military leadership must quickly set the course and content for the transition.

Next Steps

The authorities have taken measures to raise internal resources, including: * Solidarity Fund for Safeguarding the Homeland * Economic and Fiscal Crime Commission * Appointment of officers to head state-owned companies with instructions to collect money owed to the state

Now that sanctions have been lifted, what will be the next steps in the transition?

The Inclusive National Dialogue

The inclusive national dialogue announced in July 2023 has still not taken place, despite being a vital step towards defining the transition’s fundamental principles, priorities, and duration. The participation of political parties is crucial, but has been hampered by their suspension since the July coup.

Tiani’s Interview

Tiani’s televised interview failed to inform Nigeriens about his vision for a return to constitutional order or solutions to the country’s political, socio-economic, and security challenges. Instead, he focused on justifying the decision to withdraw from ECOWAS.

The Main Challenge

The main challenge now is to reconcile the political contradictions surrounding the transition. Many believe Issoufou still exerts a strong influence on politics through his links with Tiani, which threatens the junta’s cohesion and Niger’s stability.

A Way Forward

To avoid stagnation, Niger’s military authorities must organize a national dialogue without delay. The dialogue should be as inclusive as possible, bringing together: * The entire political class * Civil society * State institutions, including the army

Agreement should be reached on the duration and roadmap for the transition, and solutions found to the political, economic, and financial governance problems at the root of tensions in Niger.

Planning for the Future

Once a transition roadmap is agreed upon, the authorities will have to plan and start implementing selected priority reforms. These reforms can be completed once a democratically elected government takes office.